CITY TO WATCH: Boise, ID

Still Booming, Still Building, Still Asking "Can We Afford This?"

Boise is still growing, even after years of being on the “next big thing” chart the city continues to perform. Over the past decade, this relatively modest city transformed into a national growth leader, fueled by a tempting mix of jobs, lifestyle, and – initially, at least – a price tag that didn't make your eyes water like cutting a whole bushel of onions. But with great growth comes great... housing pressure. And that's where things get interesting for anyone building homes.

Boise's economy? Resilient is an understatement. It’s weathering national wobbles better than most, boasting low unemployment and adding jobs across tech, healthcare, manufacturing, and yes, construction. We’re talking thousands of new positions, cementing Boise's rep as a burgeoning tech hub – or "Silicon Valley West" if you're feeling optimistic (and can afford the rent). This robust economic engine is definitely powering the demand for more roofs over heads.

Speaking of heads, there are a lot more of them. The population in the Boise metro area has exploded, growing by nearly 25% in a decade. People are flocking here, mostly from pricier coastal states, drawn by the outdoor access and expanding job market. They're still coming, though maybe not quite at the breakneck speed of peak migration, ensuring a steady need for housing.

Boise's economy shows remarkable resilience with strong growth and consistently low unemployment rates (3.1% in Dec 2024, below national/state averages).

The Boise MSA had the second-lowest unemployment rate among comparable western metro areas in Dec 2024.

Job growth is robust (5.2% year-over-year Dec 2023-2024), driven by key industries like technology, healthcare, manufacturing, and construction.

Boise is gaining recognition as an emerging tech hub ("Silicon Valley West").

The Boise metro area is one of the fastest-growing nationally, with population increasing nearly 25% (adding >150,000 residents) between 2014 and 2024.

Ada County's population saw substantial growth (85.3% from 2000-2024).

Population growth is largely fueled by in-migration from other states, drawn by factors like relative affordability, quality of life, and economic opportunities.

Now, for the not-so-witty part: affordability. While incomes have risen, home prices have practically launched into orbit. That gap between what people earn and what a house costs is now a chasm, making homeownership a distant dream for many, especially those on lower incomes. Six out of ten lower-income households are now "cost-burdened," spending way too much of their paycheck on housing. It’s a tough pill to swallow for buyers and a puzzle for builders trying to deliver homes people can actually afford.

The housing market itself is a paradox. Prices are stabilizing somewhat after their vertical climb, but they're still high. Inventory remains stubbornly low – finding a house feels like a treasure hunt with very few treasures. Homes still sell relatively quickly, often with multiple offers, even with mortgage rates being significantly higher than the pandemic-induced lows.

Looking ahead to 2025-2026, the job market is forecast to keep growing, particularly in healthcare (gotta care for all those new residents and retirees!) and construction (because, well, we need more houses!). Major projects like Micron's massive expansion and Meta's new data center are creating thousands of jobs, adding fuel to the housing demand fire.

All this growth requires serious infrastructure. Roads are being widened, utilities upgraded – it's a massive undertaking involving multiple agencies trying to keep pace. These projects are essential, but coordinating them while everything else is booming is a logistical ballet with a very large cast.

On the regulatory side, Boise revamped its zoning code, making it easier to build things like Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs). And guess what? ADU construction has soared – a clear win for regulatory reform meeting market demand. While the city hopes this encourages more diverse housing like duplexes and fourplexes, high construction costs and labor shortages are still playingácio constraint role.

Residential growth hotspots are spread across the Treasure Valley. Within Boise, downtown and the west bench are seeing lots of new units, while the North End and East Boise are ADU central (and still pricey). The real action, though, is often in the surrounding cities like Meridian, Nampa, and Kuna, which are absorbing a huge chunk of the growth, offering everything from more attainable new builds to sprawling luxury estates. Builders are clearly tailoring their offerings to these distinct submarkets.

So, for homebuilders in Boise, the future is bright with opportunity, but also packed with challenges. The demand is there, backed by a strong economy and growing population. The city is even trying to make regulations more favorable. But the hurdles of affordability, high costs, and infrastructure strain are significant. Success will depend on adaptability, strategic focus on where and what to build, and perhaps a touch of that famous Idaho resilience. Boise is still booming, and the builders are right in the middle of it all.